Winners and losers from Labor’s 2025 Australian election victory

5 hours ago
rogermontgomery.com
Keywords: Labor's policies, EV transition

Labor’s election win strengthens its socialist agenda, with policies impacting various sectors. Transport and energy face shifts toward EVs and green investments, while healthcare and housing see reforms affecting providers and insurers. Supermarkets and unions may face regulatory challenges, and environmental regulations could raise compliance costs for industries.

open_in_newOriginal article

Estimated market influence

FleetPartners

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Benefit from increased demand for EV leasing.

Smartgroup Corporation

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Increased demand for EV leasing.

McMillan Shakespeare

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Increased demand for EV leasing.

Pepper Money

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Increased demand for EV leasing.

Eagers Automotive

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Short-term gains from increased EV sales.

ARB Corporation (ASX:ARB)

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Potential impact from shift to EVs, but mitigated by expansion overseas.

Ampol

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Decline in petrol and diesel demand as EV adoption grows.

Viva Energy

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Decline in petrol and diesel demand as EV adoption grows.

Rio Tinto

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: Buy

Green energy transition benefits.

South32

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: —

Green energy transition benefits.

Alumina Limited

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Green energy transition benefits.

BlueScope Steel

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Green iron support benefits.

Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG)

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Green iron support benefits.

BHP

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: Buy

Green iron support benefits.

Mars Group

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Benefits from green energy transition.

AGL Energy

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Gains from household battery subsidy.

Sonic Healthcare

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Increased demand for diagnostic services.

Healius

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Increased demand for diagnostic services.

Australian Clinical Labs

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Increased demand for diagnostic services.

Integral Diagnostics

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Increased demand for diagnostic services.

Medibank

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Stronger public healthcare system could challenge private insurers.

Sigma

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: Sell

Boosted by lower PBS medicine costs.

EBOS

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Boosted by lower PBS medicine costs.

Mirvac

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Stimulated housing market benefits.

Stockland

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Stimulated housing market benefits.

Lifestyle Communities

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Increased property transaction volumes.

Ingenia Communities Group (ASX:INA)

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Increased property transaction volumes.

Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA)

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Boosted mortgage volumes from Help-to-Buy scheme.

Westpac

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: Sell

Boosted mortgage volumes from Help-to-Buy scheme.

Pepper Money

Positivesentiment_satisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Boosted mortgage volumes from Help-to-Buy scheme.

Helia Group

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Threatened by reduced mortgage insurance revenue.

QBE Insurance (ASX:QBE)

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Threatened by reduced mortgage insurance revenue.

Woolworths (ASX:WOW)

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Regulatory pressures on pricing.

Coles

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: Neutral

Regulatory pressures on pricing.

Metcash

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Regulatory pressures on pricing.

BHP Group (ASX:BHP)

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Potential environmental regulation impact.

Downer EDI

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Higher compliance costs from labor reforms.

Whitehaven Coal

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Higher compliance costs from labor reforms.

Qantas

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied

Analyst rating: N/A

Higher compliance costs from labor reforms.

Context

Business Insights and Market Implications of Labor’s 2025 Australian Election Victory

Transport

EV Transition: Labor's vehicle efficiency policy aligns Australia with global emissions standards, accelerating EV adoption.
Benefiting Companies: Auto financing groups like FleetPartners, Smartgroup Corporation, and Pepper Money may see increased demand for EV leasing.
Market Share Projection: The EV market share is projected to reach 30% by 2030, according to the Electric Vehicle Council (EVC).
Parts Suppliers: While EVs require fewer parts, the current fleet remains predominantly internal combustion engines (ICE), with only 0.8% EV penetration in Australia.
4WD Accessories: ARB Corporation's dominance in aftermarket 4WD accessories and overseas expansion mitigate risks from the shift to EVs.

Energy and Resources

Green Investment Plan: Labor’s $7.3 billion energy transition plan includes $2 billion for aluminum smelters adopting renewables and $1 billion for green iron manufacturing.
Benefiting Companies: Rio Tinto, South32, Alumina Limited, BlueScope Steel, Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG), and BHP are positioned to benefit from sustainable initiatives.
Small-Cap Growth: Mars Group, a small-cap company, is expected to grow through construction services in regional Australia.

Healthcare

Medicare Expansion: A $8.5 billion expansion aims for 90% bulk-billing by 2030, boosting demand for diagnostic services.
Diagnostic Companies: Sonic Healthcare, Healius, Australian Clinical Labs, and Integral Diagnostics may see increased referrals.
Pharmacy Sector: Lower PBS medicine costs (from $31.60 to $25) could drive higher prescription volumes, benefiting Sigma and EBOS.

Housing

Construction Boom: A $10 billion pledge for 100,000 homes and an expanded Help-to-Buy scheme stimulate the housing market.
Developers: Mirvac, Stockland, Lifestyle Communities, and Ingenia Communities Group (ASX:INA) may see increased property transactions.
Mortgage Insurers: The five% deposit rule and waived lenders’ insurance could threaten Helia Group and QBE Insurance (ASX:QBE).

Supermarkets

Regulatory Scrutiny: Mandatory Food and Grocery Code of Conduct introduces regulatory pressures, with increased ACCC scrutiny.
Illicit Tobacco Initiative: A $157 million program supports legal retail sales for grocers like Viva Energy and Ampol.

Industrial Relations

Labor Reforms: Ban on non-compete clauses for workers earning below $175,000 and "same job, same pay" laws increase compliance costs.
Affected Industries: Mining (BHP Group), construction (Downer EDI), and aviation (Qantas) face higher recruitment and operational costs.

Environment

EPA Revival: Potential revival of the federal EPA could enforce stricter environmental regulations, impacting mining and energy sectors.
Regulatory Impact: Companies like BHP and Rio Tinto may face delays in project approvals and increased compliance costs.

This analysis highlights the diverse business impacts across sectors, emphasizing opportunities and risks shaped by Labor's policies. Strategic considerations for investors include navigating regulatory changes, adapting to market shifts, and leveraging emerging green initiatives.